How the odds work

Every number on this site comes from playing out the rest of a region’s schedule every possible way, then applying the MHSAA’s own tiebreaker rules to each outcome. Nothing is hand-picked, and nothing is a pundit’s opinion.

Every remaining game, every way it could go

A region with six games left has 64 ways those games can finish. We build the final standings for each one, break any ties, and count how often each team lands in each seed. A team that finishes first in 16 of the 64 has a 25% toss-up chance at the region title.

Early in the season, when a region has more than 15 games left and there are too many outcomes to list, we simulate the rest of the schedule 50,000 times instead, using each team’s Elo rating to decide who wins each game. Until a region gets down to 15 games, both odds modes below show those simulated numbers.

Projected and toss-up odds

Every outcome can be counted two ways, and you can switch between them at the top of each region.

Projected weights each outcome by how likely it is. Every team carries an Elo rating built from its results, with extra credit for margin of victory and a carryover from last season, and those ratings, plus home-field advantage, set each team’s chance of winning each remaining game. A 70% favorite’s win counts for more than its upset loss.

Toss-up treats every remaining game as a coin flip, so each outcome counts the same. It describes the shape of the race rather than who’s better: how many of the possible endings put a team in, regardless of how likely any one game is.

Clinched and eliminated mean the same thing in both. A team that’s in no matter what is 100% either way.

How the Elo ratings work

Each team’s Elo rating is a single number built from its game results. Beating a team raises a rating and losing lowers it, by more when the result is a surprise and, with diminishing returns, by more for a bigger margin. Region games move ratings a little more than other games.

Ratings start each season from a class baseline, 1000 in 1A rising by 50 per class to 1300 in 7A, and teams with a previous season start halfway between that baseline and where they finished last year. The home team gets a 65-point boost. A 100-point edge on a neutral field works out to about a 64% chance to win; a 200-point edge, about 76%.

A rating is a number, not a ranking: it says how strong the results suggest a team is, and it’s only used here to set the chances of individual games for Projected odds. You can see a team’s rating by opening its row in the standings.

Breaking ties the way the MHSAA does

When teams finish with the same region record, they’re separated in this order, following the region tiebreaker procedure in the 2026–27 MHSAA Handbook:

1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams.
2. Results against the highest-finishing teams in the region, working down.
3. Point differential in region games among the tied teams, capped at 12 points per game.
4. Point differential, capped at 12, in region games against the highest-finishing teams.
5. Fewest points allowed in all region games.
6. A coin flip.

Because steps 3 and 4 depend on the score, not just the winner, some races turn on margin of victory. Once five or fewer region games remain, we work through every winning margin as well, which is why a scenario can read “Raleigh beats Magee by 8–10.” While games remain, a tie that would come down to a coin flip counts each way the flip could go equally. Once region play is over, a team whose tie can only be settled by a coin flip is marked with a coin.

What the scenarios mean

Once six or fewer region games remain, each team’s possible outcomes are listed with exactly what has to happen. Conditions joined by AND must all happen together. When there’s more than one way to get there, the alternatives are separated by OR, and any one of them is enough.

With seven to ten games left, we show only results that settle a spot outright, no matter how every other game turns out. The headline at the top of each region is drawn from these same proven facts.

What “clinched” and “eliminated” mean

Clinched means a team makes the playoffs, or locks in a specific seed, in every possible outcome of the remaining games. Eliminated means it misses the playoffs in every one. We show 0% and 100% only for those certainties; anything short of that reads as less than 1% or more than 99%.

Rules, not AI

No AI model produces any number, scenario, or headline on this site. Every result comes from fixed, written-down rules: counting every way the remaining games can go, applying the MHSAA tiebreakers to each one, and, for Projected odds, Elo ratings computed from game results. Even the sentence at the top of each region is assembled from those proven facts by a template, not written by a language model.

Given the same games, the rules give the same answer every time. That includes the early-season simulation: it’s seeded from the games themselves, so the same games always produce the same 50,000 runs and the same odds, and the numbers only change when a result does. AI coding tools helped build the website and its code; they play no part in calculating the results.

Where the scores come from

Schedules and scores come from AHSFHS, the source of truth this site relies on for Mississippi high school football results. Region and classification assignments come from the MHSAA. When a score is wrong at the source, it’s wrong here until it’s corrected.

When it updates

Every morning, the latest scores are pulled at 9:00 AM Central, and the standings, odds, scenarios, and playoff brackets are recalculated at 9:30 AM Central. Results from a Friday night show up Saturday morning. The line under each region’s headline says which week the numbers cover.

What we don’t do

We don’t publish point spreads, predicted scores, or betting lines, and we don’t pick winners. Every percentage on this site answers one of three questions about a team: where it could be seeded, whether it could host, and how far it could advance. Seeds aren’t official until the MHSAA announces them.

What the numbers can’t see

The odds know only the schedule, the scores, and the rules. They don’t account for:

• Injuries, suspensions, or other changes to who’s playing.
• Weather, travel, or anything else that happens on game day.
• Forfeits, score corrections, or schedule changes until they’re recorded at the source.

Early in the season, ratings rest on a class baseline, last year’s results, and only a few games, so Projected odds say less in September than they do in late October. High school seasons are short, and a single game can swing a race. The model hasn’t yet been checked against outside benchmarks; we’re keeping a record of every published number so its accuracy can be measured after the season.

A 70% chance of finishing first means the team finishes first in 70% of the ways the season can play out, counted the way the odds mode describes. It isn’t a guarantee.

Not for gambling

The odds on this site are statistical estimates for information and entertainment only. They’re meant to help fans understand how a playoff race might unfold. Do not use them to place bets or wagers of any kind.

This site, its operators, and its developers accept no responsibility, legal or otherwise, for any losses arising from the use of these numbers for gambling, sports betting, or wagering of any kind, legal or illegal. Use for betting is entirely at your own risk; nothing here is gambling advice, a betting service, or a prediction market. Sports betting is heavily regulated in Mississippi, and wagering on high school athletic events may be illegal under state and federal law.

Using these numbers

Using these numbers in a story? Please credit mshsfootball.com and link the region page.

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